I often find myself walking away from grounds across the country wondering, did Derby actually deserve that result today? Using a statistical approach, I have taken a look at the most undeserved results for each of the last six seasons.
Infogol are able to assign the fairness rating in the furthest right-hand column, 1 being totally unfair and 100 being completely fair, based on the difference between the expected score line and the actual score line.
This blog is not definitively saying the 12 games shown were the most undeserved results; football must be watched through the eyes as well as statistics to give full judgement. The article merely acts as a trip down memory lane so you can think back to which games you thought Derby did not deserve to win/lose and compare it to what the statistics say.
Undeserved Wins
1. There are no prizes for guessing which season contained Derby’s most undeserved win. It was under Gary Rowett in 2017/18 away at Preston, where Preston had 19 shots to Derby’s 2 and the Rams retained a staggeringly low 35% possession. Derby were outplayed for most of the game and somehow took home all three points due to Preston hitting the post from the penalty spot and Tom Lawrence scoring a free kick from a long way out that the goalkeeper should have easily saved. This game is Derby’s lowest ‘expected goals for’ over the last six seasons. On any other day it would have been 1, 2 or 3-0 to Preston. In fairness to Gary Rowett his track record shows he consistently gets wins even when his teams do not aesthetically look like they are the better side in the match.
2. Sheffield Wednesday at home in 2016/17. It is extremely rare for Derby to allow such a high expected goals count against when playing at home (Sheffield Wednesday had 2.63 xG) because Pride Park is usually a fortress in the championship. Kieran Lee and Adam Reach managed not to score from around three and four yards out respectively. Several outstanding saves from Scott Carson and one of Cyrus Christie’s best ever performances in a Rams shirt were enough to take home all three points.
3. For this game I do not agree with the statistics, which suggest Derby’s win vs Hull was undeserved. An example of why stats on their own are never the answer. Hull away 2015/16 - not the playoff game but the regular season fixture. In fairness, Hull outplayed Derby in the second half but the Rams put in a fine first half performance against a Hull side that until then, had not lost at home all season. Two memorable goals from Jacob Butterfield will have had a low xG, one being a left footed volley from outside the area. In this game there was also two incredible saves from Scott Carson, the most impressive being when he tipped over a left footed shot from Abel Hernandez at full stretch heading into the top corner.
4. One of my favourite moments as a Derby fan was being in the away end at this game vs Bristol City in 2019. Watching Jayden Bogle side-foot the ball into the roof of the Bristol City net before knee-sliding in front of a delirious set of fans - all but securing Derby’s playoff position. But as the stats show, the Rams rode their luck that afternoon under Frank Lampard. An early deflected goal from Tom Lawrence set the tone for the favourable fortune. City had 11 shots on target and they had no less than 3 goal line clearances, one of which Andreas Weimann smashed the ball against the crossbar on the turn and another Martyn Waghorn headed the ball over when it seemed destined for the Derby net.
5. Luton at home last season. Given how recent this game was, I am sure Derby fans remember how lucky we were that game. James Collins should have made it 1-1 after one of the worst open goal misses I have seen at Pride Park. This came after Luton GK Simon Sluga helped Derby start the game with a free 1-0 head start after letting the ball go into his own net. He then followed this by allowing Tom Lawrence to score from the most ridiculous angle. Still, it does not matter how as long as the three points are in the bag. That day Luton only have themselves to blame for not winning on an off day for the Rams.
6. The contrast of 2014/15 is shown by the fact that season had the highest rating for its ‘most undeserved win’. Derby deserved nearly all of their wins that season, the football was sensational at times. In this game away at Wigan, an inspired substitution from Steve McClaren bringing Chris Martin on saw him smash the ball into the top right-hand corner with his weaker left foot on the half volley - the stats suggesting only 6% of shots like that usually go in. The reason why infogol think the result was unfair is because James McClean missed two huge chances right in front of goal, one with a header, the other reaching out with his left foot. For those Derby fans with good memories, this was the game where a supporter ran on the pitch as part of the goal celebration, his hat then fell off which Richard Keogh promptly picked up off the floor, put it on his own head and then quickly took it off again.
Undeserved Losses
1. Derby County were top of the league heading into their game vs Brighton away in 2015 under Steve McClaren. Before the game there was a minute’s applause for club legend Dave Mackay. Some of the free-flowing, attacking football was sublime from Derby, with Johnny Russell playing as the lone striker. Jeff Hendrick hit the crossbar, Richard Keogh’s header right in front of goal was tipped over, Russell was inches away from tapping in a Jamie Ward cross and Jesse Lingard blazed one over the bar from a perfect scoring position. Brighton’s sucker punch then came late on after the ball bounced around in the Derby box for what seemed like an eternity before being fired home into the bottom corner. In Derby’s next fixture after this game, fans will remember how they conceded two goals to Birmingham at home in stoppage time, starting the capitulation from top of the league and ultimately missing out on the playoffs.
2. Ipswich at home in 2017. Gary Rowett’s Derby conceded an early goal from a near post header direct from a corner. Following that goal though, it was simply one-way traffic with Matěj Vydra, Tom Huddlestone and Joe Ledley all missing easy opportunities to put the ball away. Not to mention a penalty claim for a foul on Tom Lawrence who somehow ended up being booked for diving. The Rams can count themselves extremely unlucky to lose that afternoon.
3. Under Frank Lampard, the stats show his most undeserved result was away at Bolton Wanderers. Mason Mount had two excellent chances to score that were not put away. A reoccurring theme for Derby in the championship was shown again here - they dominated that game but were undone by switching off defensively just for a second as Craig Noone crept in at the far post to head home.
4. The most undeserved loss in 2015/16 actually came while under caretaker manager Darren Wassall. Derby played some fantastic football under Wassall, the most memorable goal being an incredible passing team goal vs Hull City at home that Bradley Johnson finished. For the match in question vs MK Dons, Derby should have been out of sight following a free header for Jason Shackell and several scorable first half chances. MK Dons registered a single shot on target all game, a free kick from a tough angle on the edge of the box, which unfortunately was enough to steal 3 points away from the Rams.
5. Philip Cocu’s most undeserved result so far came away at Hull City. Although Kieran Dowell failed to sparkle in a Rams shirt, in this match he clipped over an incredible left footed cross that Tom Lawrence somehow managed to not convert. Chris Martin should have finished a chance on the half volley after the keeper dropped the ball and then some defending devoid of basic fundamentals saw premier league bound Jarred Bowen score twice to give Hull the win. Cocu must have been pulling his hair out that day.
6. Lastly, a prime example of why statistics on their own cannot be solely judged. Scott Carson scored an own goal, which will have artificially lowered the xG for Derby’s opponents as they traveled to Barnsley under Nigel Pearson. The stats would imply Barnsley were fortunate to score but if you watch the game back you will see that Conor Hourihane had several sublime strikes from distance and deserved his goal after smashing a ball coming across his body against the post and back of Carson into the net. A feat that championship fans will have seen all too often from Hourihane. Nigel Pearson had a terrible time in charge of Derby but he can count himself unlucky not to come away with a draw in that game. Craig Forysth and Johnny Russell had both nearly started running away in celebration before the goalkeeper denied them both on separate occasions.
I hope you enjoyed reading this and it took you back to some of the stranger games Derby have been involved in over the last six seasons.
Derby County Analysis is as a life-long derby county fan, turned amateur analyst who is attempting to analyse the most bizarre club in the championship. You can follow Derby County Analysis and see more awesome stats stuff on Twitter and on YouTube!
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