Blackburn Rovers head to Pride Park on Saturday to face The Rams. Our friend at 11pts1win has analyzed Rovers ahead of the game!
The Manager:
Tony Mowbray took charge of Blackburn Rovers in early 2017, and throughout his tenure the 4-2-3-1 system has been the norm.
Despite any hopes of a late playoff push diminishing post-lockdown, the nine game period to conclude their 19/20 season has perhaps proven to be a valuable one.
Mowbray was keen to use the time to experiment with new systems.
The Formation:
Changes saw the likes of 4-4-2 and the occasional 3 at the back used, but most notably, the Blackburn Rovers 4-3-3 was born.
The Rovers 4-3-3 consists of three key elements:
• High, attacking full backs to provide width.
• A well balanced, tenacious midfield three.
• A positionally fluid, adaptable front three, consisting of a rotating central striker role with deeper playmaking responsibilities.
Here we see that width provided by the two full backs, encouraging the midfield and forward 3 to focus on control of the central areas.
Joe Rankin-Costello was recently converted to play at right back from midfield, and has impressed. Amari’i Bell is a more natural full back.
When the full backs push up high and wide, Bradley Johnson often drops deeper from central midfield to create somewhat of a back three for defensive cover.
This allows Bell and Rankin-Costello more positional freedom when attacking.
Mowbray prioritises a balanced midfield three.
Rovers will most likely lineup with a midfield of Lewis Holtby, Bradley Johnson, and Joe Rothwell. Johnson as the holding midfielder, with Holtby and Rothwell acting more like two ‘box-to-box’ creative players.
The central striker role, largely occupied by the prolific Adam Armstrong, comes with a responsibility of deeper play-making.
Armstrong will frequently drop in to turn of spread the play to his attacking counterparts. Armstrong and Ben Brereton (Left Wing) often interchange positionally.
Armstrong is the side’s biggest goal threat, and shows a great creative output.
We can see he’s no stranger to long shots, scoring seven from outside the area. He returned 16 goals (10 xG) and seven assists (4.19 xA).
He’s already bagged his first hat-trick of the campaign.
Scoring goals is no issue for Rovers, who bagged five last time out against Wycombe.
An xG of 3.47 (Infogol) was the Championship’s highest for game Week 2.
23 shots, 16 of which were on target, shows the team’s attacking intent.
Johnson was the side’s main midfield distributor vs Wycombe, with 66 passes (84.8% success rate). Travis’ injury guarantees him a starting place.
Johnson has great potential with his pressing, and provides a long distance shooting and aerial threat.
Consistency remains an issue.
The highest player on the pitch for Rovers on Saturday was new recruit Tyrhys Dolan.
Picked up on a free from Preston North End, he has bags of pace and technical ability, and has already got his first goal.
Interestingly, Rothwell’s (8) average position was higher than Brereton’s (20).
New signing Daniel Ayala may be in contention to start, but whether he immediately replaces Derrick Williams at LCB after a good start to the season is debatable. Ayala is an aerially dominant defender, who is much more conservative on the ball (see Williams’ long ball attempts).
Thomas Kaminski is the new man between the sticks for Rovers, and has looked an assured signing thus far.
Last season he averaged 0.89 Goals Against per 90, with a respectable Save % of 75.8.
His distribution is a selling point, but has been liable to mistakes.
The Rovers press of last season was much better than Derby's, with a PPDA* of 9.5 and 11.3 respectively.
The introduction of young, energetic players like Dolan to the XI will only improve this aspect of their game.
*Passes allowed per defensive action.
Ben Mayhew (@experimental361)’s “Squad Churn” shows how both squads show that about 70% of league minutes last season was accumulated by players still at the club, placing both in the most affected third.
There has been no simple squad transition for either.
Rovers, like Derby have a knack for outperforming their expected goals total. This has been the case for The Rams under Frank Lampard, and for Rovers ever since their promotion.
Frequent, high-quality chances within the area will be key for both sides this season.
It will be a tough game for Derby, against a team high on confidence.
Jack Marriott’s probable absence will be damaging, leaving the side without a regular first team striker.
A fully fit Kamil Jóźwiak is a must, otherwise I fear we will massively lack an attacking edge.
Thank you for reading! Share, retweet and follow @11pts1win if you found the thread informative!
Special thanks to Andy Watson, as his insight was very helpful. Also thank you again to Brad (pass maps).
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